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March 18, 2008

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Dom

Guten Morgen von Deutschland... I'll say it again: it's great to have this community connection whilst I'm away from Walthamstow. I'm very sorry to be missing so many Parish events in Holy Week - hope to be back for the last half-hour of the Agape Supper, if my flight is on time. Can anyone let me know how the event at the Castle went last night?

This morning I read some articles in the International Herald Tribune, a US paper, about the Iraq war. Some earlier numbers... in 2002, before the war, a White House economist estimated the cost of the conflict as being $100-200 billion dollars. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld described this as "baloney", defended the offical estimate of $50-60 billion, and the economist was fired. The $3 trillion estimate is a projected total, and some say it could reach $5 trillion. For that, all America's housing, poverty, education and healthcare issues could be sorted out for the foreseeable future.

At the time of the invasion I regarded it as a necessary step to rid the world of another dictator; I trusted that the details had been sorted out (I mean, you wouldn't invade without thinking about how to sort things out afterwards, would you...?); and I hoped that Mugabe would be next. I was wrong on all three counts. Unfortunately my naivety was matched by that of the nominally well-informed US and UK governments.

I have a friend in the Cabinet Office whose opinion I value and trust, and who was no fan of Blair, but he says that he would have made the same decision to invade as Bush and Blair - ignoring the "dodgy dossier" which seems to have been a box-ticking exercise - because of the longer-term view: "In forty years, Bush may be proved right", he says, in tacit acknowledgement of Blair's "History will judge me" comment. But this is an Old Testament solution in a New Testament world. There's no denying that the Old Testament describes widespread suffering on a large scale that was administered by Israel. And, indeed, Israel suffered from other foreign powers such as Babylon. It's difficult to look at some of the suffering in the Old Testament without the context of the New Testament, a New Covenant, which rendered obsolete some Old Testament ways - in particular, Israel's going to war. I don't think Bush and Blair could help but think in OT terms, given that they had the power - they were thinking of justice rather than grace; of force rather than love. The re-assessment by leaders of that way of thinking is something else we need to pray for.

Sorry if this is a bit long... I'm a long way from home and missing conversation! Hope you're all well... see you soon.

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